If the Boston Red Sox plan on bringing baseball to a playoff-hungry Beantown this October, they'll have to battle through a long September first.
The Red Sox entered Tuesday a half-game back of the Cleveland Indians in the wild card race, having lost three of their last four games. Boston will barely finish above .500 for the month of August, and the schedule gets even tougher in the coming month.
September brings series against the Seattle Mariners, Oakland Athletics, New York Yankees, the Indians, and the surging Detroit Tigers. The Red Sox play 32 games in 31 days to wind down the season, and all but six of those contests come against teams that are currently .500 or better. A few matchups in particular will have definite postseason ramifications, including a three-game set with Oakland and eight contests against Cleveland (five in Fenway, including back-to-back doubleheaders). With a packed field of teams vying for the AL wild card spot, and the meager chances of the Red Sox catching the Yankees in the AL East (they trailed by five games entering Tuesday), Boston will need a big stretch run to notch the AL's final postseason spot. Moreover, they'll need some slumping bats to wake up, and a couple of injured pitchers to make effective returns from the disabled list.
And baseball's coming to the Hub in October will only become a reality if the Red Sox can get quality outings from pitchers who are not named Pedro Martinez. Over the past nine games - prior to last night's outing - Boston starters had compiled a dismal 6.93 ERA, including Pedro's worst outing of the season, which resulted in a 9-7 victory over Kansas City on Aug.24. Injuries had forced Tim Wakefield - in the midst of one of the more miserable slumps of his career - to remain in the rotation until this week, along with minor-leaguer Tomakazu Ohka, who has been surprisingly impressive over his last four starts, and Colorado acquisition Rolando Arrojo, who is starting to come around after a disappointing Boston debut. Pedro will only make about five more starts to close out the season, and while the team should win at least four - if not all - of those games, it is the contests in which he does not appear that will be vital to the Red Sox's postseason hopes. A rotation featuring Ohka, Arrojo, Wakefield, and Jeff Fassero has performed well enough to keep Boston afloat over the last month - along with a relief corps chaired by Rich Garces and closer Derek Lowe - but is still a far cry from the highly touted staff the team boasted at the start of the season.
But the key pieces of that staff may soon return to the diamond, as Bret Saberhagen, Ramon Martinez, and Pete Schourek are all scheduled to rejoin Boston over the next couple of weeks (Martinez is slated to be back this weekend). Still, Saberhagen has not pitched since 1999, and has already suffered a setback in his scheduled September return, while Martinez had struggled before getting sidelined, giving up 13 earned runs over his last three starts. Ramon, who is 8-6 with a 6.14 ERA in 21 starts this season, is likely to finish well above his career-high ERA of 4.00. Whether it's players like Ohka and Arrojo who get the September nods, or the injured returnees, the Red Sox will need to pitch like the AL ERA-leaders they reportedly are in order to outperform Cleveland and Oakland.
The Indians and Athletics might be lacking in the pitching department when compared to the Red Sox, but unlike Boston, it's offense that marks those teams' bread and butter. And though the Red Sox can't rely on their limping bats to pull them through September, a couple of key position players will need to wake up from recent slumbers to carry the team. Nomar Garciaparra has seen his quest for .400 fade rapidly; the veteran shortstop's batting average has dropped nearly 20 points since the All Star break. Garciaparra, bothered by a left hamstring injury that forced him to sit out a couple of games last week, has particularly struggled of late, batting just .243 (9-for-37) over an 11-game span. He had just one multi-hit game during that period, to go with two total RBIs. Carl Everett also finds himself stuck in the midst of a disappointing August. The fiery outfielder had hit just four home runs in his first 23 games since returning from a ten-game suspension, incurred for head-butting an umpire, earlier this month. Everett's average has gone down 25 points since the break, while his ongoing feud with manager Jimy Williams continues to gain publicity.
And with Everett and Garciaparra slumping, Boston doesn't have much offense left to pick up the slack. Lou Merloni was taken on a few weeks ago to play third base, but has cooled down after an explosive start. Trot Nixon hasn't hit a home run since June 23, and Rico Brogna, Jose Offerman, and Jason Varitek won't supply the Red Sox with the needed offensive spark. Brian Daubach, Mike Lansing, and Troy O'Leary, while providing more reliable bats, are nonetheless all hitting below .270. Lansing is actually batting just .209 with no longballs in 26 games with the Red Sox, while Offerman is almost guaranteed to finish with his lowest average in nine years.
The Red Sox have tomorrow off before returning to host the Mariners for a three-game series beginning Friday. Ramon Martinez is currently slated to make his return in Saturday's game against Seattle, which should allow Boston to relegate Wakefield back to the bullpen. That may be the first step towards starting a September surge, but it might be just as futile as trying to catch the Yankees.
