Last January, the NFL crowned five new division champions. For four of those teams, 1999 was viewed as just the beginning, and each is heavily favored to repeat in 2000. But for the fifth division winner, the Seattle Seahawks, last season's first-place finish in the AFC West is being dismissed as an aberration, with few giving the 'Hawks a shot to come out on top again.
Things are so topsy-turvy in the West that we are more likely to see the standings turned completely upside-down than we are to witness a repeat of last year's finish. While the Seahawks backed into the division title, stumbling down the stretch to finish 9-7, and as the Kansas City Chiefs blew a 17-point lead and a chance to win the division on the season's final day, the Denver Broncos, who finished in fifth, and Oakland Raiders, who were tied for third, came out strong and emerged as favorites entering 2000. In short, the only surprise in the West will be if there are no surprises.
Bold Predictions:
This will be the year the Raiders finally put it together. The Raiders have made a habit of disappointing fans in recent seasons, showing flashes of brilliance at times but faltering when it counted most. Last year was no exception, as the Raiders navigated the league's most difficult schedule and finished fifth in offense and 10th in defense but lost seven games by seven or fewer points. To remedy that, the Raiders drafted Sebastian Janikowski in the first round, and he has become the most talked-about rookie kicker in league history.
With his incredibly powerful left leg, Janikowski will turn around a kicking game that lost the Raiders at least two or three of their games last season. Combine that with the third-easiest schedule in the league, and Oakland, without any real weaknesses, is the team best equipped to win the division.
A majority of the division's teams will have a quarterback controversy. Outside of the Raiders, who are set with Rich Gannon at the helm, the division's four other teams all have question marks about their signal callers. The Broncos' Brian Griese was inconsistent last year and could be benched in favor of new backup Gus Frerotte, who helped lead Detroit to the playoffs a year ago. Seattle's Jon Kitna has not been sharp in the preseason, and coach Mike Holmgren has made it clear that he will not hesitate to use promising Brock Huard in his place.
The Chiefs enter the season with Elvis Grbac calling the signals. Although he played well a year ago, in 1998 he was benched in favor of Gannon. With wide receivers Joe Horn and Andre Rison gone, plus no running game to speak of, the Chiefs have put their quarterback in position to fail. The most interesting QB situation is with the San Diego Chargers, who have elected to start Ryan Leaf. Leaf, whose arm has never been questioned, has been constantly criticized for not having his head in the game.
Things We Know for Sure:
Nobody in the West will get to the Super Bowl. It would be surprising if the division produced a first-round bye, let alone an AFC champion. From top to bottom, it is the most even division in football. The Raiders and Broncos, who look like the top two teams entering the season, both have several question marks and could lose to anyone in the division on any day. While the Broncos came out of the West to win the Super Bowl in both 1998 and 1999, there was a clear power vacuum last year as Seattle won just nine games to take the division before bowing out to an extremely flawed Miami team in the playoffs. The division is much closer to last year's form than to that of two years ago; as a result, it will probably be second-round-and-out at best for the division champ.
Things We're Not Sure About:
How two teams will deal with tragedy. A pair of deaths rocked the Chiefs and Raiders this off-season, and both have the potential to either inspire or crush the teams they struck. Kansas City lost its best player and emotional leader when linebacker Derrick Thomas died in February after a car accident. A number of defensive players, including linebacker Donnie Edwards, a close friend of Thomas's, may have trouble keeping their emotions in check during the season. Whether the emotion that many Chiefs players will be feeling this season helps or hurts remains to be seen. But there is no question that on paper, their defense looks a lot weaker.
The Raiders had to deal with the death of safety Eric Turner, who passed away this spring after battling intestinal cancer. While Turner was not the most instrumental player on the Raiders defense, his loss hit some Oakland players hard and could occupy the thoughts of some of his former teammates during the season.
How long the "new" Ryan Leaf lasts. Aside from the number 16 and the cannon arm, the surprise starter for the Chargers this season bore no resemblance to the problem child who clashed with fans, media, and anyone else that got in his way the last two years. Leaf earned the nod after impressing San Diego coach Mike Riley with his poise and decision-making in the preseason. However, whether or not that translates into regular season success for a guy whose career totals are two touchdowns and 15 interceptions, remains to be seen. The early returns have not been promising, as Leaf has thrown just one touchdown and five interceptions in leading the Chargers to an 0-2 start.
Terrell Davis' health. Davis looked fairly good in the preseason, but went out and sprained his ankle in Week One, forcing him to sit out last week. With his knee already a major question mark entering the season and backup Olandis Gary now out for the season with the same torn ACL that sidelined Davis a year ago, we will soon find out whether he can carry the Denver offense on his shoulders.
Rising Stars:
Brian Griese, Broncos. After an up-and-down rookie season in which he was thrust into the starting role, Griese began to blossom late in the season. He picked up where he left off in 2000, throwing for 307 yards, two touchdowns, and no interceptions in Week One. He then followed with a 268-yard, three touchdown performance on Sunday, leading the Broncos to a combined 78 points in two games.
Donnie Edwards, Chiefs. Perhaps nobody's career was more influenced by Derrick Thomas. Edwards, a close friend of Thomas, now has the difficult task of filling #56's shoes. He may be capable, though, at least on the field if not in the locker room. The 27-year-old Edwards recorded 98 tackles, picked off five passes, and scored a touchdown last year. He already has two picks and a TD in 2000, and is only getting better.
Fantasy Studs:
Terrell Davis, Broncos. Everything is contingent on his knee and ankle staying healthy, but Davis was playing like a Hall-of-Famer before last year. He rushed for 2008 yards and 21 touchdowns in 1998, 1750 yards and 15 touchdowns in '97, and had become the most prolific running back in the NFL. He is capable of putting up numbers that nobody else in the league can come close to.
Tim Brown, Raiders. He may be 34 years old, but Brown is still one of the game's top receivers. He amassed 1344 yards and six touchdowns last season, and after surprising a lot of people by bypassing the Dallas Cowboys and returning to Oakland in the off-season, much of the same can be expected.
Sleeper Team:
San Diego Chargers. Ryan Leaf's combustible personality notwithstanding, the Chargers have not made many headlines in recent years. While they were mediocre last year, their 8-8 record was slightly better than what was expected of them. That was largely due to an underrated defense which was ranked twelfth in the league last year and third against the run. With three of the Chargers' four division rivals bringing uncertainties at the quarterback position, the ability to shut down the run will help. In the off-season, San Diego signed wide receiver Curtis Conway, which should help the passing game. If running back Jermaine Fazande can build on his surprising success at the end of last season, San Diego may be a threat. If only Leaf wasn't such an unmitigated disaster to this point in his career, the Chargers would be a contender.
Miscellaneous:
Minus Seattle, the Raiders and Broncos play only one game against a playoff team this season (in fact, Denver has already played that game, losing to the St. Louis Rams in Week One).... The Seahawks will play their home games at the University of Washington's Husky Stadium while waiting for a new facility to be built - Seattle is expected to move to its new home in 2002.
