In one sense, the AFC Central has been the most unstable division in football in recent years. By the kickoff of next season, not one team will be playing in the same stadium it was just seven years earlier. In every year since 1994, either a team has moved to a new stadium or entered the league.
But while its inhabitants have shown a propensity to move geographically, there has been relatively little movement in the standings in the last few years. In fact, the Central was the only division to feature a repeat champion last year, the 1999 Jacksonville Jaguars becoming the only team in the past two seasons to successfully defend a division crown.
While a Jaguars' three-peat may not be in the cards, they remain, along with the AFC Champion Tennessee Titans, the cream of the division. And just like last year, the Cincinnati Bengals and Cleveland Browns will have to scratch and claw to get as many as four wins. In the end, the 2000 Central may look very similar to the '99 version.
Bold Predictions:
The window of opportunity has slammed shut on the Jacksonville Jaguars. While the Jags are still one of the better teams in the AFC, they are no longer a legitimate threat to win the Super Bowl, as they were entering the last two seasons. The Jaguars took advantage of a ridiculously soft schedule last season, fattening their record against the NFL's bottom-feeders.
The schedule is still fairly soft in 2000 in the bottom-heavy Central. Consequently, the Jags will probably put together double-digit wins for the fourth straight season, but will look more like pretenders when faced with quality opponents. That includes in the playoffs, if they make it, where the team will be ripe for an early exit.
The Baltimore Ravens will not surprise anyone - except those who think that the preseason counts. The Ravens have become a sleeper pick following a 4-0 preseason. If that sounds familiar, that's because by now it's probably become the team slogan. The Ravens were a sleeper pick last year after a 4-0 preseason. They were a sleeper pick in 1998 after a 4-0 preseason. They fell on their faces once the calendar hit September in each of those seasons, however, and never recovered. This year's optimism also springs from the fact that quarterback Tony Banks showed flashes of brilliance at the end of last year. But Banks has yet to prove that he can lead a winning team over a 16-game season. The guess here is that he can't.
Things We Know for Sure
The Tennessee Titans are for real. Whether Tennesee, which came up a yard short of glory last season, can take the next step remains to be seen. But after years of mediocrity, the Titans finally got over the hump in '99. Rookie Jevon Kearse burst onto the scene and changed the way opposing offenses operated. Running back Eddie George emerged as one of the NFL's best, and Steve McNair finally came into his own during the team's thrilling playoff run.
The team got even better over the summer, adding wide receiver Carl Pickens and giving McNair five legitimate targets in Pickens, George, Kevin Dyson, Yancey Thigpen, and tight end Frank Wycheck. If they stay healthy, the Titans look like the most balanced team in the league, without any obvious weaknesses anywhere. Plus, it can't hurt that Tennessee owns its biggest division rival, the Jaguars, who they beat three times last year, including a 33-14 thrashing in Jacksonville in the AFC Championship Game.
If you want to see good football in Ohio, you better go to Canton. That's because Cincinnati and Cleveland aren't going to offer any of it for the sixth straight year. To be fair, the Browns can hardly be blamed, as they were defunct between the 1996 and '98 seasons. But they surely didn't take the league by storm in their return to the NFL last year. The offense and defense both finished dead last in the NFL on their way to a 2-14 finish. While first-round pick Courtney Brown and defensive line additions like Orpheus Roye and Keith McKenzie should help the pass rush, the Browns offense is still a major question mark. They couldn't run the ball last year and adding Errict Rhett at running back and Roman Oben to the offensive line will not be sufficient to help matters. Plus, second-year quarterback Tim Couch has looked shaky in the preseason, which could mean another long year in the Dawg Pound.
At least the Browns have an excuse. The Bengals ran out of them years ago. While there was some excitement over the drafting of electrifying wide receiver Peter Warrick, the Bengals, in typical one-step forward two-steps backward fashion, lost both of last year's starting receivers before Warrick ever played a down. Disgruntled Carl Pickens was shipped to Tennessee and projected number-two Darnay Scott was lost for the season to a broken leg. There is still hope that with Second-year quarterback Akili Smith under center, he, underrated running back Corey Dillon and Warrick can bring some excitement to the Bengals' new home, Paul Brown Stadium. The defense, however, is still awful, and Bengals lack depth across the board, both of which are recipes for disaster.
Things We Have No Clue About
What Bill Cowher is thinking. After benching quarterback Kordell Stewart at the end of last season, Cowher and the Steelers threw money at Kent Graham, himself benched by the New York Giants last year. That left Pittsburgh with one guy who hasn't looked like a starter since 1997 and another who hasn't resembled one at any point in his career. After neither distinguished himself in the preseason, Cowher elected to go with Graham to start the season but intends to use both as the season progresses. Apparently, Cowher forgot that such a plan never works. The quarterback position is too pivotal to platoon, as players, especially receivers, get used to one player's style and leadership. The Steelers decline, from 11-5 in 1997 to 7-9 in '98 to 6-10 last year should only continue this season. Never was that more apparent than on Sunday, when the offense could not put a point on the board in a 16-0 loss to Baltimore.
How the Jaguars offense will perform. Among the best performing units in the NFL in recent years, the Jags' offense has suffered some significant losses coming into 2000. Backup running back James Stewart gave the team a cushion when starter Fred Taylor was hurt, a frequent occurrence last season. However, Stewart signed with Detroit in the winter, and now Stacey Mack, who carried the ball just seven times last year, will be under a ton of pressure should Taylor go down. To make matters worse, whether its Taylor or Mack carrying the ball, the holes will not be quite as big as in recent years. Right tackle Leon Searcy is out until at least November after tearing his right quadriceps tendon and star left tackle Tony Boselli, although he will play, is not completely healthy after tearing his ACL late last season.
How Ray Lewis will handle hostile fans. Lewis, the Ravens' star linebacker who was acquitted of murder charges this summer, will undoubtedly be the target of opposing fans' venom after making a name for himself for all the wrong reasons this winter. Whether or not he can turn the other cheek will go a long way in determining how successful the Baltimore defense is.
Rising Stars:
Akili Smith, Bengals. The third overall pick in the 1999 draft wowed scouts and fans with his physical ability while in college. Add to that the mental toughness that he showed in leading the Bengals to an early-season win over Cleveland, a team that he felt used him prior to the draft while negotiating with Tim Couch, and Smith may be ready to break out in 2000. He has a playmaker to throw to in Peter Warrick, a decent line, and a good running game to take pressure off of him. With Jeff Blake gone, Smith may be ready to shine - now if only the defense could stop anyone.
Kevin Johnson, Browns. Johnson, drafted to be the main target for Couch, quietly approached 1000 yards in his rookie season. The Browns drafted two more receivers, JuJuan Dawson and Dennis Northcutt, who if successful can prevent defenses from keying on Johnson. Even if they are not, with a year under his belt, Johnson is capable of 1,000 yards and double-digit touchdowns.
Plaxico Burress, Steelers. He hasn't even played a game yet, but Burress has made believers out of those who have seen him play. He has the physical tools, at 6'5" and 230 pounds, to be the go-to receiver the team has lacked since losing Yancey Thigpen following the 1997 season. If the two-headed quarterback in Pittsburgh can get him the ball, he may be dangerous.
Fantasy studs:
Eddie George, Titans. George is a workhorse who runs, catches passes, and gets in the end zone. In short, he is what makes the Titans offense go. Last season, George rushed for 1304 yards, caught 47 passes for 458, and scored 13 touchdowns. If he stays healthy, he could even surpass those numbers now that opponents must respect Tennessee's passing game.
Mark Brunell, Jaguars. His production tailed off last season as Brunell feuded with coach Tom Coughlin and battled nagging injuries. However, he is still among the top five quarterbacks in the league when he is on. Look for his numbers to improve from his 14-touchdown season a year ago.
Jimmy Smith, Jaguars. Only Marvin Harrison of the Colts was more productive in the AFC last year. Smith caught 116 passes for an astonishing 1636 yards and six touchdowns. Then he revealed that he spent most of the season with horribly blurred vision in one eye. The problem has been corrected, leaving one to wonder what he'll be able to do now that he can actually see the ball.
Sleeper Team
None. Outside of the Philadelphia Eagles and Chicago Bears, the Ravens may be the most popular pick to surprise people. But their offense has too many question marks, and unlike last Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the defense is not good enough to compensate for the team's shortcomings when it has the ball. Fine, you say, but there are five other teams in the division. Ruling out the Jaguars and Titans because they won a combined 31 games last year including playoffs and aren't sneaking up on anyone, that leaves Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, and Cleveland. Enough said.
Miscellaneous
Sure, the Jaguars finished 1999 at 14-2. But amazingly, they did not beat a playoff team once in the regular season. Their only two games against a winning team were a pair of losses to Tennessee. . . In Bill Cowher, Jeff Fisher, Tom Coughlin, and Bruce Coslet of Pittsburgh, Tennessee, Jacksonville, and Cincinnati, the Central features four coaches that remain from the start of the 1997 season. Only eight other teams in the NFL have had such stability on the sideline. If rumors are accurate, however, all but Fisher may be gone, either willingly or not, by the start of 2001. . .Whatever happened to a good finish leading to a more difficult schedule? If the Titans and Jaguars did not have to play each other, they would have the two weakest slates, in terms of opponents' 1999 winning percentage, in the league this year. . . Although they only entered the NFL in 1995, the Jaguars still boast the longest streak of consecutive years having made the playoffs in the AFC, having made it every year since 1996.
