As polls open in schools and town halls across the nation this morning, Vice President Al Gore and Texas Governor George W. Bush are scrambling to make their final impressions on voters. With the latest tracking polls ranking Bush only a few percentage points above Gore, both candidates are struggling to seize influential support in key battleground states.
The 2000 election has been unusual in some respects and routine in others. Voter apathy appears to be more widespread than any race in recent memory, but the runoff is also poised to be one of the closest ever. James Glaser, chairman of Tufts' political science department, was hesitant to make predictions as to who would win the White House, but did offer some insight into how the Senate and House of Representatives might look come January.
"Election night is this orgy of competition which I find fascinating," he said on Friday. On the whole, Glaser predicted that "Congress will pick up Democrats," shave the Republican majority in the Senate to two seats, and maintain the already-slender Republican majority in the House.
Third party candidates have the potential to influence the results of this election if they draw support away from candidates in states where a few votes make a difference. Green Party Candidate Ralph Nader currently has the support of an estimated five percent of likely voters, and Glaser said that he draws more of his votes from Gore than Bush.
However, Glaser estimates that a good half of Nader supporters would switch their vote to Gore shortly before the election.
"Voters want to minimize regret rather than maximize interest," he said. "[Voters] are strategic."
In an effort to counter this inevitable shift in the electorate, Bush supporters have aired television ads in key states that support Nader and attack Gore.
"It's a wonderful political strategy," Glaser said. "I admire it very much."
The most recent state-by-state polls indicate that 12 states, and a total of 133 votes in the Electoral College, could swing either way. These hot spots are Arkansas, Florida, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, New Mexico, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Washington, Wisconsin, and West Virginia.
Gore has an edge in 12 states and the District of Columbia, for a total of 181 electoral votes. He is expected to win in California, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Massachusetts, Maryland, Minnesota, New Jersey, New York, Rhode Island, and Vermont.
Bush appears to have a significant lead in a substantial 26 states and is expected to gain 224 electoral votes from Alaska, Alabama, Arizona, Colorado, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Missouri, Mississippi, Montana, North Carolina, North Dakota, Nevada, New Hampshire, Nebraska, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Texas, Utah, Virginia, and Wyoming.
While the election is by no means decided, the current numbers indicate a narrow Bush victory. The election is expected to go down to the wire, however, and by all accounts, whichever candidate wins will be holding a late-night victory party.
