Former British Prime Minister Gordon Brown said in a 2009 interview with The Guardian that in the age of the Internet "you cannot have Rwanda again." His logic was appealing. If knowledge of atrocities can be spread instantly and globally, surely the nations of the world would no longer stand idly by as innocent civilians were killed. His beliefs and hopes were shared by many who saw the proliferation of Internet access as heralding a new era in global politics, in which global connectivity and awareness gave individuals power against oppressive regimes. Some commentators went further, claiming that Internet access would fundamentally alter the structure of global politics in favor of the masses. Almost three years later, it is clear that the truth is much more complex. The "Arab Spring" has achieved great success utilizing new technologies, but there have also been failures, and protesters are not the only ones who are finding ways to use this new tool.
New information technologies have certainly changed the ways in which populations struggle against their governments. Sociologist ZeynepTufecki is fond of describing a common technique of oppressive regimes that she calls the "whack-a-protest." In the "whack-a-protest" model, an oppressive regime would respond to dissent by isolating an area, expelling journalists, and eliminating dissent with violence. For regimes, this method was an effective and economical tactic. Advancements in information technology such as the proliferation of Internet, cellphones, and mobile video recording devices have made this tactic less effective. This allows information to be spread to two important groups, fellow dissidents and the global community, giving protesters the ability to coordinate better within their own movement and share their plight with the world.
Another way in which new technology has been purported to help spread democratic movements is its ability to break down "pluralistic ignorance," a situation in which the majority of a group rejects an idea but publicly supports it due to the mistaken belief that it is widely accepted. People in an oppressive regime may fear to speak out because they think they are alone, and oppressive regimes often heavily censor the media. As the Internet, in the words of activist John Gilmore, "interprets censorship as damage and routes around it," it breaks down pluralistic ignorance and opens the door to the formation of anti-government groups.
Unfortunately for those struggling for freedom, there is another side to the story. While the Arab Spring has claimed many successes, it is important not to give new technologies too much credit or place in them too much hope. Gordon Brown's words mentioned earlier were in reaction to the "Green Revolution" in Iran, but three years later Iran's political system remains unchanged and Iranian dissidents suffered from a government crackdown that was aided by an easy-to-follow data trail provided by Internet activity. Despite what Brown said, it is easy to see how Facebook is a gold mine for government police. A list of dissidents' friends and logs of their communications is only a password away, and few dissidents in Iran or elsewhere had the expertise to protect themselves from a determined police inquiry.
The attention of the world is, today, on Syria, and the outcome remains uncertain. But amid widespread violence and assertions from the White House that the Syrian government is receiving assistance with the technological tools of oppression from Iran, the situation looks bleak. Syria may well become a second Iran, rather than a second Tunisia. While new technology has helped ignite and fuel protests, it can also be a tool to extinguish them.
This year's EPIIC symposium will provide ample opportunity to discuss these issues with experts in a variety of fields. Three panels, Power Transitions in the 21st Century (Feb 22. at 7 p.m.), #Power: Youth, Technology and the State (Feb. 24 at 2 p.m.), and The Media and Warfare (Feb. 23 at 8 p.m.) will all relate to the ways in which populations come into conflict with their governments as technologies change.
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Michael Fishman is a junior majoring in political science.
