Former Israeli Deputy National Security Advisor Dr. Chuck Freilich offered his thoughts on the current state of the Middle East last night.
"I believe the outcome of the war [in Iraq] will prove to be the defining moment in the ... Middle East," he said.
The speech, which was sponsored by the New Initiative for Middle East Peace (NIMEP), was held in Eaton Hall.
Freilich discussed the options that the United States faces in Iraq, as well as the possible regional repercussions from the decisions that the country makes. "I don't know that there's a solution, and I'm not trying to advocate. [But] one thing is for sure. Withdrawal means guaranteed failure," Freilich said.
Under the assumption that the United States will withdraw from Iraq, Freilich listed two possible outcomes for the state. The country could be ruled by a Shiite dictator, as opposed to a Sunni dictator like Saddam Hussein, or it could separate into multiple states along ethnic and religious lines, he said.
According to Freilich, both Saudi Arabia and Iran could take action in Iraq to protect their own national security interests as well.
Iran's possible entrance into the conflict is particularly menacing for Freilich and Israel, because of the proximity that Iran will have to Israel if it occupies Iraq. "Israel is petrified about Iran's presence in Iraq. If Iran takes power [in] Iraq, then it will be on Jordan's border," he said.
According to Freilich, the net outcome of the war in Iraq could be that Iran becomes a regional power. Iran's nascent nuclear program was also a topic of interest for Freilich, since future possible conflicts in the Middle East could feature nuclear weapons.
He outlined a possible scenario in which Syria attacked Israel and Iran entered the conflict due to its ties with Hezbollah. If Iran's nuclear program were fully operational, the conflict could be the most opportune moment for the country to announce its nuclear ability or even exercise it, Freilich said.
"I don't think they're ever going to use [nuclear weaponry] against Israel, but I could be wrong. The Iranians have already said, 'Israel's a one-bomb country,'" he said.
Although Freilich said that an Iranian nuclear program could threaten U.S. and Israeli interests, he still believes that Iran is justified in its attempts to establish one.
"I think Iran has very good national security reasons of their own for having nukes. The U.S. did them a huge favor by getting rid of Saddam and the Taliban ... However, Iraq may re-emerge and [Iran] fears the U.S. more than Israel or Iraq and [it] is surrounded by U.S. troops or friends of the U.S.," he said.
According to Freilich, it will be very difficult for anyone to stop the development of Iran's nuclear program, but there are at least two possible outcomes. Either Iran will complete the development of the program or the global community will unify and impose debilitating sanctions on Iran, causing it to discontinue its nuclear activities, he said.
"We've seen a little bit of activity in the [U.N.] Security Council, [but] China and Russia have deep economic ties with Iran," he said.
Freilich believes that Iran is susceptible to international pressure and listed a few possible sanctions that could be imposed through the U.N., or at least multilaterally.
"Sixty to 80 percent of [Iran's] government's budget is from oil revenue. [They] threaten cutting the oil supply, but then their economy will get shut down overnight," he said.
According to Freilich, Iran imports 40 percent of the refined oil, or gasoline, that the country uses, and therefore not selling Iran refined oil would also shut down its economy.
He even proposed cutting Iran off from the Internet as a more "gentle" solution, since this would anger the country's youth.
Freilich, however, was still unsure about what combination of leverages and sanctions could lead to a desired result. "Is there any package of sticks and carrots that would get [Iran] to give up its nuclear program?" he asked.
He also discussed the recent fighting between Israel and Lebanon, as well as Iran's alleged ties with Hamas and Hezbollah.
Although the near future does not bode well for peace in Israel, according to Freilich, he did note that its economy is booming.
"I think we'll eventually have a peace settlement with the Palestinians, but in the meantime, it's just a matter of hanging in there," he said.
