Reading Mr. Sy's viewpoint (10/24/06, "Iran: Much ado about nothing"), I was overcome by the extraordinary naivet?© of his extremely optimistic assessment of Iran's current attempt to enter the world's growing nuclear club.
For a few convoluted reasons - ranian-Israeli relations pre-1979, an impending "war in the Levant" that would force Iran to resume normal relations with Israel, and the unlikelihood that Iran will directly attack the United States itself - Mr. Sy contends that the Ayatollahs want to "retain the status quo within the Persian realm."
Careful analysis, however, would lead one to believe that Iran seeks anything but the maintenance of its current position in the geopolitical sphere. Henry Kissinger, for one, stated in the Washington Post that Iran seeks to acquire a nuclear weapon as a safety net for the "systematic destruction of the regional order."
At a hearing before the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations in September, Senator Dick Lugar (R-Ind.) stated that Iran has the intention of "greatly expanding its role in the region." In the same hearing Ashton B. Carter, the Co-Director of the Preventive Defense Project at Harvard, called the Iranian nuclear program one of "this era's greatest challenges." In light of such statements, this is hardly an issue the President, State Department, or Pentagon can put on the back burner.
As for it being "political suicide" for Iran to risk a war with America by developing its nuclear program, nothing could be further from the truth. Just the opposite is the case: the Iranian leadership is acquiring tremendous amounts of political capital by ignoring American demands.
This view is reflected by Ray Takeh, a Senior Fellow at The Council on Foreign Relations, who stated that the Iranian hardliners are validating their "revolutionary ardor and sense of nationalism" in the face of an impudent America by completely ignoring UN Resolution 1696. The Iranian leadership does not fear sanctions, knowing their proven futility on other regimes that have drawn America's ire. To this end Ayatollah Jannati, the head of the Iranian Guardian Council, said that, "We do not welcome sanctions, but if we are threatened by sanctions, we will not give in."
And why does the author believe that the "conservative clergy's power seems to be waning?" By all accounts, it appears as if the Iranian ruling clergy has never before been in a better geo-strategic position.
Last year's oil revenues provided the regime with windfall profits amounting to $55 billion. Its neighbors are severely weakened: Iraq is in chaos; Afghanistan and Pakistan are preoccupied with a resurgent Taliban; the Lebanese government is crumbling; Saudi Arabia is seeking nuclear warheads from Pakistan to counter this burgeoning Iranian threat. As Newsweek editor Fareed Zakaria has said, "Iran is riding high" while America's "influence in the region is at an all-time low."
I do agree with Mr. Sy's argument to the extent that the United States should not use military means to coerce Iran. Such an action would be a clear failure. Many estimates predict that it would delay the Iranian enrichment program by only two-to-four years, and such a strike would justify retaliatory strikes on American shipping in the Strait of Hormuz or allow its Lebanese proxy, Hezbollah, to continue its attacks on Israelis or the largely German and French UNIFIL peacekeepers in northern Israel.
For this reason, the United States should continue the intense negotiations with the EU-3 plus Russia and China; whether or not Russia and China would participate fully in efforts to disarm Iran given their extensive oil-based economic relations with the country is topic for another debate. It may come to the critical point where all methods of diplomatic, economic, political and military coercions on the part of the international community fail.
To quote the play that is the title of Mr. Sy's viewpoint, it would be fitting to remember that "some Cupids kill with arrows, some with traps." Iran does not yet have the capability to turn Israel into a nuclear wasteland.
But if the United States decides to turn a blind eye on Tehran's blatant disregard of UN Security Council Resolutions, this country will become ensnared in the trap of isolationism that Mr. Sy promotes. It may then be more likely that Boston or another major American port city - and not Tel Aviv - will suffer the fate that President Ahmadinejad promises Israel.
Ian Davis is a junior who has not yet declared a major.
