BUENOS AIRES - The media leaked a report two weeks ago from the CIA claiming Fidel Castro - Cuba's leader since January 1959 - has Parkinson's disease.
Reuters quoted an unnamed official familiar with the report as saying that "the assessment is that he has the disease and that his condition has progressed."
Though the CIA has been known to make mistakes, the Cuban dictator did collapse on a stage last year and he is also rapidly approaching his eightieth birthday. Pondering the process of de-Castroation is therefore entirely worthwhile.
Though Castro's designated successor is his younger brother, Raul Castro - a youthful 74 years of age - it is safe to assume that the island-state will change dramatically when "El Barbudo" dies. For the most part, tensions with Cuba have stemmed not from its communism, but from its Castroism. An important source of popularity for Castro is a sort of David and Goliath syndrome that exists in Cuba. Castro manages to retain a great deal of support because he is seen as a hero for standing up to the big bullies in the White House.
It is important to reassess America's stance toward Cuba. Through much of the rest of the world, the standard operating procedure is to allow the people to engage in anti-American rhetoric, and for America to still work with that country.
Take Indonesia. In October 2002, bombs went off in Bali, killing over 200 people and proving to the world the importance of placating terrorist activities on the archipelago. Since then, the United States has done much to advance its interests in Indonesia. Since the Bali blasts, there has been a great deal of security cooperation, and the U.S. has provided a great deal of monetary and technological counter-terrorism assistance. There have been many cases of cooperation of senior officials.
Megawati Sukarnoputri - president until October 2004 - was able to strongly denounce the American presence in Afghanistan and Iraq. The Indonesian government asked the U.N. to take specific steps to prevent the war, and Megawati herself then praised Iraqis for defending themselves against the American troops.
How do we reconcile this hard-line dialogue with Washington's promises of loans and arms?
Washington understands domestic support can steadily drop if any leader is seen as too closely bound by American wishes. Oral insubordination is largely tolerated as long as crucial issues are resolved amicably.
Cuba should be no different. Anti-American sentiment through Latin America is vicious, and Cuban citizens have been the victims of propaganda and filtered press reports for decades now. The United States will need to work toward stimulating the Cuban economy, but should do so largely from the shadows and with a great deal of patience and tolerance.
The minute Castro's death is announced, the American embargo should be lifted. The 1996 Helms-Burton Act must be overturned and Bush's tightening of the embargo annulled. A legal flow of goods and services should be established.
The United States may be able to benefit from cheap Cuban sugar and coffee. The massive export market that exists only 90 miles away from Cuba could create jobs and elevate many Cubans out of poverty.
Trade relations must be bilateral. The United States should export food and medicines cheaply and quickly. Tourism has been critical in keeping the island's economy afloat. A Miami-Havana airplane route would help promote tourism in a virtually untapped market. (I propose a "What happens in Havana, stays in Havana," ad campaign.)
For the United States, this would be the ultimate effort to win over the hearts and minds of Latin Americans. The region is now divided between Chavez and his fiery anti-American rhetoric, and Chile and Mexico, with their pro-free trade, pro-U.S. policies. No nation in the region can really survive without U.S. recognition and acceptance. History will surely mark the Cuban case as an anomaly.
Under Raul and whoever may follow, the United States should accept a fair amount of angry rhetoric and still be willing to engage in trade and diplomatic relations. Given the dire situation under Castro - a stagnating economy and chronic shortages - it should not take long for people to shift into a more pro-American mindset. Winning over Cubans could start a chain reaction in the region, debilitating Chavez and blurring the memories of Castro and El Che. The U.S. government probably has already planned for all sorts of contingencies and outcomes. It will be interesting though to see what type of plan prevails.
