It is the time of year when the playoff bracket is gradually becoming clearer. But with the regular season closing next Sunday, we're fixing our gaze in the direction of some individual honors bestowed annually by the Baseball Writers Association. And it looks like 2004 could be a good year for the National League's senior citizens.
NL MVP
As tiresome as the official MLB engraver may be of emblazoning the name "Barry Bonds" on the MVP trophy each year, at least he's not in any danger of misspelling it. Why? Because 2004 will be the seventh time the San Francisco Giants slugger's name has graced the award and the fourth year in a row.
It might be dull to see the 40-year-old claim the honor yet again, instead of sharing it around, but there is no comparison to Bonds' achievements this season.
Say what you will about the Los Angeles Dodgers' Adrian Beltre (.342 average, 47 homers, 117 RBI through Saturday), who is having a career year at third base. The St. Louis Cardinals' trio of Albert Pujols, Scott Rolen and Jim Edmonds, are the deadliest middle of the lineup in the majors. But no one has posted numbers like Bonds.
Through Saturday, the leftfielder had cranked 44 longballs and driven in 100 runs in just 356 at bats. And let us not forget the walks - 221 and counting, including 116 intentionally. Bonds has scored 123 runs, many because of those walks, and is slugging .834, almost identical to the OPS (on base percentage plus slugging) of Chicago Cubs offensive expert Sammy Sosa. Yikes.
Barry's .615 on base percentage is off the charts. To sabermatricians, he is an itch you cannot scratch, a statistical improbability. Yet there he is, doing it in the flesh.
To take a leaf from ESPN's Jayson Stark, if you took away all 132 of Bonds' hits this season, his OBP would still be .390, tied for 20th in the majors with the Boston Red Sox' Jason Varitek, ahead of the likes of Vlad Guerrero and Alex Rodriguez.
It's no contest.
NL Cy Young
The Cy Young Award is a little less clear cut. Just a little less.
Middle-aged Randy Johnson of the Arizona Diamondbacks leads the majors with 272 strikeouts and a 0.89 WHIP (walks plus hits per inning pitched). He is third with a 2.69 ERA. Opponents are batting just .193 against him.
But The Big Unit is just 14-14 thanks to an anemic D-Back offense that has scored just 22 runs in his 14 losses - an average of 1.6 runs a game.
Baseball writers, whose votes determine award winners, don't typically like players on losing teams, and Arizona is the worst team of all. Throw in several other NL pitchers with decent numbers, and the only hardware Johnson will take home this winter is the "No Really, I Do Like Curt Schilling" Award.
The Houston Astros' double punch of the ageless Roger Clemens (18-4, 2.89 ERA, 210 K's) and Roy Oswalt (18-10, 3.59, 194) are also in the mix. Oswalt - 15 years Clemens' junior - is an unlikely outsider, as is former Sox castoff and current Florida Marlins ace Carl Pavano (17-8, 3.05), who lacks the strikeouts to compete with Clemens and Johnson. Clemens has also pitched very well in hitter-friendly Minute Maid Park, and could have even more impressive stats if he bothered to get on the team bus.
San Fran's Jason Schmidt, the preseason pick of many experts, won't claim honors either, and unlike last season, when the Dodgers' Eric Gagne was the Cy recipient, there are no closers who stand out as distinctively this year.
The Rocket will take this one again, like Bonds, for the seventh time, but Randy deserves recognition for pitching in the Hell Hole that is Arizona and doing a pretty good job, considering the team he plays in front of every five days.
NL Rookie of the Year
This one may appear toughest of all, with two legitimate players contending for the title. San Diego Padres' shortstop Khalil Greene and outfielder Jason Bay of the Pittsburgh Pirates have had impressive years both offensively and defensively. But only one will win, and it will be Bay.
Playing the tougher of the two positions, Greene has posted a .273 average with 15 homers and 65 RBI to go along with a .349 OBP and .446 slugging percentage while playing in pitcher-friendly PETCO Park. He's been solid defensively too, helping lead a substantially improved Padres team into playoff contention.
But Bay has far better numbers than Greene, and every other NL rookie, in most offensive categories - a .293 average, 25 homers, 78 RBI, .369 OBP and .573 slugging - and has made some highlight reel plays of his own. And consider this: his slugging percentage is the third-highest NL rookie mark ever. Former Pirate Barry Bonds didn't slug that high until his seventh big league season (and final in Steel City).
Bay may play a less demanding position, left field, and hits within the small confines of Pittsburgh's PNC Park, but his numbers are significantly better than his peers. He missed the first month of the season due to injury, but that hasn't stopped him from breaking the club rookie home run record: pretty impressive given the likes of Bonds starting his career there.
Bay will take home the Pirates' first ever Rookie of Year Award.
NL Manager of the Year
Two words: Bobby Cox. The Atlanta Braves have won 13 straight division titles (excluding the 1994 strike season). How's that for consistency?
