Well, the season is definitely underway here in fantasy baseballland, and there is plenty to talk about. Right now, the trade bugshould be hitting most leagues as teams are recognizing where theyhave strengths and where they have weaknesses. I definitelyencourage trading, but my advice for this week: be careful.
A lot of big name guys out there are underperforming, and you'reprobably getting scared, thinking that Carlos Lee might be lastyear's Pat Burrell. While this is always a possibility, it's ananomaly. Sure, guys break out all the time and become greathitters. That's one thing. But very rarely do great hitters justfall off the face of the fantasy planet without some explanation(i.e. injury, old age, bad team protection). So don't losehope.
Another thing to remember is that the baseball season is VERYLONG. That's right. It is six months of near-daily stats for ahealthy player. Very few players are entirely consistentthroughout. Look at Jeff Bagwell. Last year he hit 10 homers inApril and batted .314. Then in May and June, he hit 4 dingerscombined, batted .256, only to come back in July and have another10 HR, 25 RBI month. Or Nomar -- streakiest guy in the game.Giambi, too. And Jim Thome is a notorious slow starter.
The point is, don't get discouraged. If your talent isn't comingthrough right now, it will later. Stick to your guns, and try tothink of your player's average value -- that is, theirexpected year-long stats. If a player has three years of fairlyconsistent stats, trust them. Guys will over-perform one month,under-perform the next, so just don't let pesky trade proposalsmake you do something stupid.
On the same note, there are some players right now who arehitting off the charts. So you have two options: ride the hotstreak until it slows down, or try to sell your players high. I'mtalking trades. Scott Rolen is the fourth most valuable guy infantasy now. Guess what? It won't last. He's never hit more than 31homers or batted over .300. But that doesn't mean you can'tconvince someone else in your league that he's the next Pujols. Sotrade him for Hank Blalock, who will be just as good after 162games, and a starter or a closer or whatever you need.
Here are some hitters who are seriously over-performing: MoisesAlou, Charles Johnson, Craig Biggio, Vinny Castilla, Matt Lawtonand Troy Glaus. Trade'em big while you can.
Some under-performers not to worry about: A-Rod, Sheffield,Soriano, Vernon Wells, Garret Anderson, Ichiro, Bobby Abreu, DerekLee, Aubrey Huff, Randy Winn, and Steve Finley. Nab them low froman unhappy owner or keep'em if you got'em.
Then there comes the unprovens. These batters have a good seasonor month under their belts and it's impossible to make a fairjudgment about them. The following players currently have very highceilings, so get them at least on your bench if you can for cheap:Scott Posednik, Marcus Giles, David Ortiz, Morgan Ensberg, andBrandon Inge.
Lastly, there's the Brian Giles category, or the past-injuredguys. Also in this category are Ken Griffey (of course), JermaineDye, Corey Patterson and Mike Sweeney. They have shown greatnesswhen they play, but they are coming off of injuries. Again, don'tget too convinced right away that Giles won't come back or that Dyewill last the whole season. I say avoid these fools. True, theycould turn out to be amazing fantasy stars back from the dead, butin my book, once seriously injured equals forever damaged. I inviteany of my competitors to prove me wrong, but I won't take on thatrisk.
That's it for my projections spiel. Now let's get some news ofthe week. Barry Bonds, Rondell White, Jim Thome, Mike Lowell, andRaul Ibanez topped the player rater this past week. No realsurprises there except for White, who will definitely not keep itup. If you have OBP counting in your league, expect to cruise withBonds. Still the best hitter around. He even stole a baseyesterday.
Kerry Wood had a great pitching performance, as did Randy Wolfand Esteban Loaiza, who's proving that last year wasn't a fluke. Onthe flip side, Jason Schmidt got shelled in his first start off theDL, and Woody Williams, Hideo Nomo, and Jaime Moyer continue todisappoint. Be patient. Sergio Mitre of the Cubs might be a guy tokeep your eye on.
Some injuries of note over the past week were Robbie Alomar,Jose Valentin, Chipper Jones, and Kevin Appier (not that you shouldcare). Ty Wiggington has an ulcer and Angel Berroa is out withmigraines, the chumps. Torii Hunter is set to come back this weekso Lew Ford fans beware. Also, it appears that Dmitri Young, NomarGarciaparra, Andy Pettite, Mark Teixera, and Carl Everett will allbe out for longer than expected. Bummer.
Okay, that's all for now. Keep writing in your fantasyquestions. Next week I'll be talking about up-and-comingstarters.
