Dead Democrats

A lot of my Republican friends have argued that the Democratic Party has run out of steam, has no leadership, and is on its political deathbed. My immediate reaction has been that this is just silly. But that is just a knee-jerk reaction - I have since given it more thought and have come up with the following.

First, a lot of the perceived Democratic weakness comes from the simple fact that it is now the opposition party in America. Look at the Democrats in the 80s, the Republicans in the 90s, or even at another western democracy -- the Labour Party in Britain in the 80s and the Conservative Party in Britain today. In each of these cases, the political buzz was that these parties were in disarray and were headed into serious decline. That said, to those who want to make the claim that the Democratic Party is in disarray and headed out, just wait a few years. They will return to the White House with their own popular president and the Republicans will be left scrambling again.

My second observation is more focused on the long-term health of the party. A common cry of upstart Democrats (think Howard Dean) is that the Democrats will not take back the White House next year if they insist on being Bush-lite. The argument is that the Democratic Party has moved so far to the right that you might as well call them Republicans. But let's step back and look at this from afar.

Imagine that the year is 1903 and not 2003 -- imagine what American conservatives would say about the prospect of a pervasive American welfare state (with Medicare, Social Security, etc.), the enfranchisement of women, the civil rights movement, and a massive military industrial complex that allows America to intervene around the globe at a moment's notice. All of these issues would have thrown conservatives into an uproar. These staples of modern America have come to fruition because the Democratic Party has scored massive political victories in the last century. You need to look no further than FDR, Truman, and Johnson to find the source of all of these.

None of these issues is seriously questioned by either party today. And that is the ultimate indication that the Democratic Party and the American left was the overwhelming 'winner' in American politics in the twentieth century. Issues that would have been repulsive to conservatives a century ago are now part of the Republican mainstream. How does the saying go -- imitation is the ultimate form of flattery? I would say the Republicans have become Democrats-lite, not the other way around.

Neither party is fighting over big issues anymore (I would classify the rapid expansion of civil rights, the creation of the welfare state, and the creation of the military industrial complex as being big issues). Today the fights are over marginal issues. In the recent past, the Republicans have found a way of taking advantage of this situation far better than the Democrats have. It has nothing to do with their being more in line with mainstream America than the Democrats -- because let's face it, both parties sit on the center of the current political spectrum. The Republicans simply have a rather brilliant public relations strategy.

One part of this strategy has to do with the so-called 'liberal media'. I have had countless arguments with liberals and conservatives alike over this issue. And well, I do not think there is a political bias one way or the other. There is one pervasive media bias though and that is for sensationalism. But that is beside the point. You can find snippets on FOXNews if you are a Democrat, or pull isolated articles from the New York Times if you are a Republican, and make an argument that the media is clearly biased one way or the other. Most media outlets just chase blood in the water, period. If it is a sensational story, they will run with it.

I would argue that the conservative intelligentsia and the Republican Party are well aware of this -- that there really is not much of a political bias in the media. But watch Republican politicians or conservative commentators on TV: they are relentless in bashing the 'liberal media' at every turn. They are more than happy to reinforce the perception that the media is biased against them. Why? That way whenever the media gives them unfavorable coverage -- perhaps justly -- the party's cohorts will hit the airwaves and bash the liberal media. The Republicans are massively successful when they employ these tactics.

Now the Democrats, consciously or not, seem to be using the same tactics with FOXNews. Maybe it will work, but it will likely be a long hard slog to beat back the deeply engrained perception that the media favors liberals. From a PR perspective though, it is a wise long-term strategy. Offering Democratic alternatives to Rush Limbaugh and Bill O'Reilly -- two of the most popular media voices who also are two of the most relentless critics of the liberal media, ironic eh? -- will also help the Democrats regain the advantage.

The other key to the Republican PR strategy was developed sometime over the last few decades: message, message, message. What is the Republican message? Cut taxes, shrink government, keep America safe. It is clean, clear, and simple. The Democrats now need to work to re-craft their image and focus their message.

What does this all mean? Over the last century, the Democratic left clearly triumphed, while in the recent past, the Republicans have developed a winning PR strategy to win them the Congress and the White House. The Democrats look weak now, but that will change as soon as a Democrat returns to the White House. For the long-term though, the Democratic Party should look for new 'big' issues which it can champion. Chief among these could spring from the war on terrorism -- as much as Bush is the current king of anti-terrorism, you can start to see fissures in the Republican Party over its historically isolationist tendencies. The Democrats have historically been the party of international intervention and it is a mantle that they should recapture.

Whether or not the Democratic Party finds new 'big' issues to champion is anyone's guess, but one thing's for certain: reports of the death of the Democratic Party have been greatly exaggerated. Just wait a few years.