These past few weeks have been quite exhausting, with the administration of President Donald Trump topping off the chaos by delivering a carnival of a congressional address. I worry about a lot these days when it comes to the future of our country, but now I, and really all of us who live in America, have yet another worry: the near-complete collapse of the post-World War II international order, underpinned by a possible splintering of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.
I have written many articles from the perspective of an American, pondering what would be best for our nation on the global stage. I’m going to stop doing that for now because it is really hard to rally for the current United States to be a global leader. With the acknowledgement that the United States will now play a smaller role in international politics, let me turn my attention to what our potential ‘former’ allies must do to replace America on the world stage.
Retired Adm. James Stavridis, a previous dean of The Fletcher School at Tufts University, recently floated the idea of a European Treaty Organization in place of NATO, which he personally believes is on its last legs. From 2009 to 2013, Stavridis was the supreme allied commander of NATO in global operations; thus, his insight on the organization is incredibly valuable. If Stavridis is warning that NATO is likely to fall apart, it is wise to heed his words.
With the possibility of this new reality, the EU and the U.K. need to replace American security guarantees within a reasonable amount of time.
Though I am no admiral or former supreme commander of NATO, I believe this may be possible if taken seriously by all members of the EU and the U.K. On paper, a combined European force would be quite the behemoth, fielding nearly 1.5 million active duty personnel and possessing enough money to outfit their troops with some of the best military kit and equipment offered today. France has additionally proposed an expansion of its nuclear umbrella to the rest of the EU, a plan which has, so far, been received relatively well by most member states. I personally believe that France and the U.K. should also provide other European nations with the means to produce their own nuclear deterrent, as France and the U.K. still have a relatively insignificant amount of such weapons compared to the United States or Russia.
Yet these few strengths are about the only thing that a combined European force will have going for them, at least initially. These forces will have to further adapt to fighting in close step with soldiers from nearly thirty nationalities, and this cooperation would most likely become a whole other beast when in the midst of active conflict. Though they could possibly be grouped based on their original national armies, a combined EU force would still require a multinational central command, something that is also much easier said than done.
Additionally, Europe lacks some of the most critical military supplies needed to conduct a modern war. European intelligence, reconnaissance and surveillance assets are limited, with the United States making up for this shortfall both in the skies and in space, not to mention the European NATO members’ lack of heavy lift and other support aircraft. Reports have also recently pointed to the fact that NATO countries currently possess only about 5% of the air defense assets needed to defend Eastern and Central Europe from a possible Russian attack.
European military capability currently represents the geopolitical embodiment of Swiss cheese, but they have begun to address this current weakness.
The new “ReArm Europe Plan,” introduced by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, attempts to do just that. The plan calls for the mobilization of almost $866.68 billion (€800 billion) over the next several years, which is to be achieved through the loosening of stringent economic regulation primarily set by the EU Stability and Growth Pact. This will allow member states to significantly increase military spending while not having to worry about exceeding various guidelines set to ensure a general alignment of the member states’ economies. The plan will also include a new investment pool that member states can utilize while also further focusing on streamlining their procurement of military goods and utilizing ever-increasing amounts of private capital to supplement their combined armed forces. U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer similarly kicked U.K. defense spending into high gear, setting out for an ambitious increase to 2.5% of gross domestic product by early 2027.
Europe is also home to some of the most proficient defense contractors in the world, so scaling up the production capabilities of these companies is set to play a major part in building up whatever additional forces the EU has planned. Continued and reinvigorated investment into Ukraine is also a welcome move, as the longer Russia is distracted by its current engagement, the more time Europe has to rearm and prepare itself.
Europe is slowly but surely awakening from its slumber, and there is enough will and ability among the members of the EU to start taking their defense seriously. This, however, must be managed superbly and done expeditiously, or Europe will find it increasingly difficult to thrive in the new world they find themselves in.
