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The Tufts Daily
Where you read it first | Tuesday, March 19, 2024

A look at the top of the league

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Miami Heat forward LeBron James is pushed away from the basket by San Antonio Spurs power forward Tim Duncan in Game 5 of the NBA Finals on June 15, 2014.

After a long offseason and a crazy summer of free agency, it's finally upon us. No longer do you have to feel guilty watching the NFL; no longer do you need to pretend you care about baseball to get your sports fix; no longer do you need to wait. The NBA is back.

It's time to celebrate the return of Derrick Rose, of Kobe Bryant, of Swaggy P, of the trade talks, of the tanking and of the silliness of the NBA season. But more importantly, it's time to celebrate the return of high-quality basketball and the craziness this season has in store.

Last year finished with the San Antonio Spurs ending the Miami Heat's dynasty, putting an end to the LeBron James era in South Beach in the process. Now the King has taken his talents back to the Rust Belt, and the most wide-open season in recent memory is upon us. At least five teams have serious title aspirations, and many more will be looking to make runs to the conference finals. So let's take a walk through each conference's top four teams, looking at which teams the Daily expects will still be around come playoff time, and where they'll be seeded.

The East

1. Cleveland Cavaliers

The Cavs made a couple of moves this summer. The best player since Michael Jordan is back in wine and gold, one of the three best power forwards in the league joined the team, they brought on a host of wily veterans and also added a coach, David Blatt, who is expected to have an immediate impact. Not a bad haul.

Four years ago, when LeBron jumped to the Heat in the summer of 2010, most expected the team would run away with the East. Instead, it suffered through growing pains, stumbled out of the gate and finished behind the Bulls in the East.

So why will these Cavs be different? Because all the pieces fit here in Cleveland. Unlike with Bosh and Wade, the players LeBron joined up with this summer are natural complements to his game. Kevin Love will space the floor brilliantly from the power forward spot, and Kyrie Irving will be able to handle the ball to ease LeBron's offensive workload. Add in Mike Miller and James Jones draining wide open 3-pointers in all the open space and some maturity from Dion Waiters, and this team could be historically good on the offensive end.

But there are many questions to be answered for this team that looks so drastically different from the Cavs of last year. Will they be big and consistent enough at center to hang with the Bulls? Will their defense hold up with Kyrie and Love playing so many minutes together? How much of the playmaking burden will LeBron be forced to shoulder?

These are important questions, but ones that likely will be smoothed over thanks to Blatt's coaching and a move or two around the trade deadline. And with three of the top fifteen offensive players in the league playing on the same starting unit, it's hard to imagine an East where the Cavs don’t wind up with the top seed.

2. Chicago Bulls

A Chicago Bulls team with no Derrick Rose somehow dragged itself to 48 wins last season on the back of Joakim Noah's relentless play and Tom Thibodeau's relentless defensive scheme. The 2013-14 Bulls were the second best defensive team in the league, allowing just 97.8 points per 100 possessions, but were saddled with the third worst offense in the NBA, meaning that they had to slog their way to every single win.

This year, things look different. The Bulls have Rose back, have upgraded from Carlos Boozer to a re-energized Pau Gasol and have added Doug McDermott, a rookie sharpshooter who figures to give the Bulls some long-needed help from 3-point land. Thibodeau's scheme will be tight as ever, and if these pieces manage to gel, the Bulls will be a scary contender.

Noah put together an MVP-type campaign last season, averaging 12.6 points, 11.3 rebounds, 5.4 assists and 1.5 blocks per game -- incredible numbers with so little help on the offensive end of the court. With Rose back and Pau Gasol playing next to him, Noah will have less to do and will have the opportunity for some gorgeous playmaking from the post.

But the real concern is what version of Derrick Rose comes back to the Bulls this year. Rose was not in form this summer at the FIBA World Cup, and if he takes a while to get going at the beginning of the season, the Bulls might not be able to keep up with the pace the Cavs will be setting in the East. But if Rose can stay mostly healthy and round into form, a Conference Finals matchup between these top two teams will be all kinds of entertaining.

3. Washington Wizards

Unlike the top two teams in the East, the Wiz bring back largely the same team as last year's squad that won 44 games. Trevor Ariza is out and in his place is Paul Pierce, and Washington added DeJuan Blair, but this team will look very similar to the one that gave the Pacers a tough series in the conference semifinals last season.

The two key players for the Wizards are John Wall and Bradley Beal, two young guard talents that GM Ernie Grunfeld expects will continue to progress and grow this team from within. Last year, Wall and Beal averaged 19.3 and 17.1 points per game respectively, with Wall upping his 3-point percentage to 35 percent and Beal to 40 percent, but if this team truly wants to contend in a top-heavy East, both players will need to take big leaps to carry the squad. The team finished 16th in the league last year in offensive efficiency, and ninth defensively -- enough to get by in a terrible Eastern Conference, but not good enough to make noise in a much more top-heavy conference this year.

But Pierce will help. The veteran showed last year that he still has some big shots left in his legs, and on such a young team he'll be able to come off the bench, take clutch jumpers and pump his fists when he drains them. Look for Pierce to play about 20 minutes a game as the Wizards manage his load to keep him fresh for the playoffs.

So what are the concerns? They have to be about the progress of Wall and Beal. As much growth as Wall has shown, averaging 8.8 assists per game last year, there's a chance he won't make the leap the Wizards expect, which could leave them struggling and Beal without a player to create for him.

The Wizards are far from the upper echelon of the Cavs and Bulls, but are a team that, if things fall correctly, could be making a serious jump toward the top of the East.

4. Charlotte Hornets

The team formerly known as the Bobcats has a massive opportunity this year to make a move into the Eastern Conference's top four. Over the offseason, the Hornets signed Lance Stephenson to help their core of Al Jefferson, Gerald Henderson, Kemba Walker and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, a move that gives the Hornets an added level of offensive potency outside of Big Al's dazzling post game. And on top of that, the Hornets added Noah Vonleh and P.J. Hairston through the draft, two rookies who should play a reasonable number of minutes to help this team improve.

For the Hornets, the improvement will have to come on the offensive end. Last year the team was sixth in defensive efficiency, allowing just 101.2 points per 100 possessions, but on offense was 24th in the NBA. Part of that is due to coach Steve Clifford's style and the way the team plays through Big Al, but it's also due to Walker's incredibly inefficient shooting, as he posted just a 41 percent two-point field goal percentage, on his way to 17.7 points per game, a figure that has to improve for the Hornets to take a step forward.

Stephenson will help the Hornets improve there, as he'll space the floor in a way Kidd-Gilchrist absolutely could not. But at the same time, there are worries about what will happen to Lance now that he's been paid and is outside of Larry Bird's tutelage. If Charlotte can rein him in, look for them to make a real leap this year past the Raptors and into the top half of the conference.

The West

1. San Antonio Spurs

Every single year, writers and analysts doubt the Spurs. Every single year, the Spurs prove them wrong with a sterling regular season. This year will be no different, even as they stave off a championship hangover from last year.

This is a team that didn't play a single player more than 30 minutes a game, yet still managed to be fifth in the league in offensive efficiency, and fourth on the defensive end. Even with an aging core, the Spurs won 62 games and shot the ball at an outrageous clip of 48.6 percent from the floor, including 39.7 percent from three.

It's these numbers that will ultimately be the reason the Spurs retain their hold at the top of the Western Conference. They have the most sophisticated scheme in the league, bolstered by the finest front office in the NBA. The team is able to win basketball games without relying too heavily on any individual contributions, instead relying on its process and floor-spacing to run circles around the league.

But the Spurs also do have an emerging star on their team in Kawhi Leonard, who won the NBA Finals MVP last year. In each of his three seasons in the league, Leonard has upped his scoring by two points per 36 minutes, including a field goal percentage that has climbed all the way to 52.2 percent. So if Leonard continues to progress, the team will rely even less on Tony Parker, Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili, and instead on Leonard, Danny Green and Patty Mills as its offensive creators.

2. Los Angeles Clippers

Although the Spurs might be the best team in the West, the Clippers are certainly the most interesting.

In the first year of the Doc Rivers era last season, the Clippers turned their high-profile core into the finest scoring team in the league, pouring in 109.4 points per 100 possessions, the best rate in the league. More impressive is the fact that the Clips were able to put up that kind of offense even with Chris Paul missing for 20 games and without a true backup big man.

The first issue may resurface as Chris Paul nears age 30, but the second won't, as the Clippers added Spencer Hawes this summer to provide rebounding and 3-point shooting from the center position, a much needed balance with the power interior game of DeAndre Jordan. Stuck in Philadelphia and Cleveland last season, Hawes still managed to shoot 41.6 percent on 3-pointers and average 13.2 points per game.

But more important is the expected development of Blake Griffin as a shooter. Rumors have it that the big man has extended his range all the way out to the 3-point line, a move that would help space the floor for the Clips and turn Griffin into one of the five most feared offensive players in the league. He averaged 24.1 ppg last season on 52.8 percent shooting, but if he can take even more of the offensive load from Paul, the Clips will be in great shape.

The biggest questions for the Clippers, however, are on the defensive end of the ball. Jordan averaged 2.5 blocks per game last year and took a massive step in the right direction as a player, but the Clips were just seventh in the league in defensive efficiency. If they can climb a few spots on defense, this is a team that will be a true title contender. Doc has the chance to work his magic in his second year, and that should be enough to turn the Clippers into the Spurs' greatest threat in the west.

3. Oklahoma City Thunder

After a season where the Thunder were exposed once again in the postseason as too stagnant and reliant on Russell Westbrook, what did the Thunder do to get better this offseason? Pretty much nothing. OKC added Mitch McGary in the draft, picked up Anthony Morrow and lost Thabo Sefolosha and Derek Fisher. And then on top of that, the team will be without Kevin Durant for at least 6-8 weeks to start the season after the reigning MVP suffered a Jones fracture this preseason.

But even if the Thunder didn't make any major improvements, this still was a team that scored 108.1 points per 100 possessions and battled hard with the Spurs in the Western Conference Finals. They have three players that averaged more than 15 points per game, including one in Durant that scored 32 per contest.

The Thunder are a known quantity at this point -- with everyone healthy, they'll score the ball brilliantly, have a few defensive letdowns and will always be fun to watch. But for the first 6-8 weeks, they will be a very unknown quantity with Durant not on the court. OKC will have to find a way to replace his 33 percent usage rate and a player that made the Thunder nine points better per 100 possessions whenever he stepped on the court.

That responsibility will fall largely on the shoulders of the mercurial Westrbook and the consistent Serge Ibaka. For the first time Westbrook will have the chance to completely run the show, meaning that a player that already took 20.2 shots per 36 minutes will probably be firing up even more jumpers. And Ibaka will have to take on some creative responsibility, as the floor will not be quite as spaced out as it is with Durant around.

This will be a murky and messy start to the season for the Thunder, but providing Durant comes back in a reasonable amount of time, this is still a team that should finish top-three in a loaded Western Conference

4. Dallas Mavericks

After the top three seeds, the West gets messy. The Rockets, Grizzlies, Warriors, Blazers and Mavericks will all be jostling for home court advantage in the first round, and the fourth and eighth seeds could be separated by as little as two games by the time the season comes to an end.

But it's the Mavs that will make the jump from the eighth seed last year up to the fourth this year. Over the offseason, the Mavericks added in Chandler Parsons to an offense that tied for the second in the league in offensive efficiency. His 7.6 win shares from last season will be a massive help to a Dallas team that has been looking for one more piece on the offensive end for quite a while.

Defensively, the Mavs got back Tyson Chandler after his three years in New York. Although he's not quite the Defensive-Player-of-the-Year-type he used to be, Chandler will still be incredibly valuable in anchoring a Dallas defense that has not had an effective rim-stopper since he left.

The biggest question mark is if Dirk Nowitzki can continue his graceful aging and remain a centerpiece of Dallas' offense while not being a liability on the defensive end. Last season the German averaged 23.8 points per 36 minutes on 49.7 percent shooting, including a career-high four-and-a-half 3-pointers attempted per game. But as he gets older, the Mavs have to worry about how dependable he can be over the course of an 82-game season.

Parsons will help in this regard, as will Rick Carlisle, who now has a full arsenal of players, young and old, with which to experiment and build. This battle for the fourth spot in the west will be fascinating, but look for the Mavs to make the jump, win 54 games and take the home court advantage.

Dallas tips off the season against the Spurs tonight, marking the long-awaited return of the NBA and the start of what will be one of the wildest seasons we've ever seen.

 

 

Predictions for a box:

Eastern Conference Champions: Cleveland Cavaliers

Western Conference Champions: L.A. Clippers

NBA Champions: Cleveland Cavaliers

MVP: LeBron James

Coach of the Year: Gregg Popovich

Sixth Man of the Year: Isaiah Thomas

Rookie of the Year: Jabari Parker

Most Improved: Giannis Antetokounmpo