Jeb! (?)

Few things in the world annoy me more than those Buzzfeed articles about being “a '90s kid.” Seeing some kid wax poetic about "Full House" (1987-1995) or "The Fresh Prince of Bel-Air" (1990-1996) despite being born years after those shows ended is just infuriating. And with the possibility (once a likelihood) of another Clinton vs. Bush election à la 1992, I’m a bit surprised Buzzfeed hasn’t gone all nostalgic over it.

In 1992, then-Arkansas governor Bill Clinton prevailed over President George H. W. Bush. Curiously enough, that election also featured a rich, conservative candidate in Ross Perot. It seemed like history was repeating itself 23 years later.

Hillary Clinton’s nomination on the Democratic side has been a bit of a fait accompli since well before she announced her candidacy. On the Republican side, Jeb Bush’s candidacy seemed equally likely to win nomination as recently as July. But several factors, some outside of his control, threaten to derail his campaign.

Jeb arguably has a stronger resume heading into this election than his older brother did 16 years ago. He was a relatively popular governor in a state Republicans have to win next November -- Florida. Florida’s winner has taken nine of the last 10 general elections. A Republican has not won a general election without winning the state since Calvin Coolidge in 1924, back when the state had just six electoral votes instead of 29. Bush cut taxes as governor, shrunk state government, and even spent money to protect the Everglades. He also speaks Spanish, potentially giving Republicans an opportunity to close margins in a demographic with which they have struggled. He seems perfect.

Bush’s biggest problem is one I’ve discussed before: Republicans want a new voice. A new Pew poll reported that 65 percent of Republicans want “new ideas and a different approach.” Comparing this to the 36 percent who responded this way just five months ago, it is easy to see the direction in which Donald Trump and Ben Carson have pushed the party. This is why his campaign posters say “Jeb!” instead of “Bush,” a name that hardly evokes new ideas.

Bush also struggles with likability. In a recent Fox News poll, Bush received 7 percent of the Republican vote, a spread that places him sixth among candidates in his party. Despite a decent debate performance, Bush seems reserved and awkward. This is perhaps best exemplified by his cringeworthy low-five with Donald Trump.

He also has a consistent habit of saying questionably silly things. Saying “stuff happens,” in the aftermath of this past week’s mass shooting in Oregon is terrible on both a human and a political level. So is saying that the government should cut funding for women’s health programs.

Watching Bush try to secure the nomination is like watching Roger Federer play a first round match at Wimbledon. Sure, one thinks, he’ll make some unforced errors (check) and might fall behind (check again), but he’ll win it at the end. Federer has talent. Bush has oodles of cash. But the more we wait, the less likely it looks like Bush has what it takes to win. It seems like Jeb is in the shadow of George (both H.W. and W.). The Buzzfeed article might have to wait.