Usually, I love reading my friend Zach Shapiro’s wonderful op-eds. However, I can’t help but disagree with the conclusion reached in his most recent article, “A new Iran strategy.” That piece argues that Iran cannot be trusted, that deterrence is a superior strategy and that there are few strategic benefits to a deal. This leads to the piece's conclusion: that the U.S. should end negotiations and take military action against Iran.
On the first count, contradictions are cited between moderate Iranian President Hassan Rouhani’s rhetoric and the anti-Americanism of Iran’s religious hardliners, indicating that we cannot trust Iran’s genuineness at the negotiating table. However, this is the discord you’ll find in any multi-ideology government: President Obama faces fierce opposition from his opponents in Congress on this deal. Yet, there is no question that Obama genuinely wants it. Whether or not we give Rouhani the same benefit of the doubt, there are other factors to consider: Iranian Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani has promised that the legislature will approve the deal, and, despite Ayatollah Ali Khameini’s fiery anti-American rhetoric, he has explicitly pronounced his support for a deal and would not have allowed it to get this far if he truly opposed it. In terms of President Rouhani’s personal accountability, one must remember that he is democratically elected and up for reelection in 2017.The Iranian people are in jubilant celebration following the announcement of a framework deal, and Rouhani could lose their votes if he reneges. Bottom line: Iran’s political establishment will approve a deal; it’s the United States’ position we can’t be sure of as long as Congress seems as though it wants to shoot down any agreement.
On the second point discussed in the original article, the two examples of the United States’ shooting down of an Iranian passenger liner leading to a ceasefire in the Iran-Iraq War, and the U.S. invasion of Iraq causing Iran to temporarily halt its nuclear program are cited. In terms of the former point, there is no hard evidence of any connection between this tragedy and the ceasefire. Rather, perhaps it is the fact that Iran had been growing war-weary for years, and it was draft-dodging, hemorrhaging public support and economic suffering that made them pull out. On the latter point, Iran actually suspended the program before the invasion of Iraq. In response to this invasion as well as to being labeled part of an Axis of Evil by President Bush, Iranians elected a right-wing, Holocaust-denying president who unapologetically opposed the United States and quickly resumed the program. Of these two examples, there is no evidence of one having any effect, while the other actually led to a resumption of the nuclear program. These deterrents didn’t work, and we need to try something else.
In regard to the third point mentioned in "A new Iran strategy," there are clear strategic benefits to an Iran deal. The most obvious should be that it significantly hampers Iran’s ability to acquire a nuclear weapon. While Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu claims that this deal “paves” the road to an Iranian bomb, it actually cuts down centrifuges by two-thirds, curbs uranium stockpiles by 97 percent, limits uranium enrichment to one facility, puts foreign scientists in the nuclear program and subjects all of this to IAEA regulations and inspections. If that’s a road to a nuke, it’s paved with potholes. Also, if our goal is to weaken those who chant “Death to America,” the image of an American President shaking hands with an Iranian one over a successful nuclear deal would do more damage to them than any American bombing campaign could.
In the Middle East might hasn’t always been right, as the Iraq War, the Libyan Civil War and the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians have all wrought chaos. Peace should be given a shot: It worked for Israel and Egypt at Camp David in 1978, as the two former enemies have not fought ever since then. Peace is the right choice in Iran, where it is in the best interest of the United States and the Iranian people to secure a good deal that limits Iran’s nuclear capability and provides sanctions relief. As President Obama has said, this is that good deal.
