Fletcher School panel discusses recent elections in Myanmar

On Nov. 8, Myanmar held elections that resulted in the victory of the nation’s opposition party, the National League for Democracy (NLD). Convening to discuss recent developments regarding these elections, the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy held a panel called "Myanmar in Transition: Unpacking the Recent Elections" on Friday, Nov. 20.

The panel featured three speakers: U Shwe Maung, a member of the Myanmar Parliament and board member of ASEAN Parliamentarians for Human Rights; David Dapice, an associate professor in Development Economics in Southeast Asia at Tufts and an economist at the Ash Center for Democratic Governance and Innovation at Harvard Kennedy School; and Ayesha Jalal, the Mary Richardson Professor of History and Director of Center for South Asian and Indian Ocean Studies at Tufts. The panel was co-sponsored by several institutes, including the Institute for Global Leadership and the Harvard Law and International Development Society. Panelists also spoke about the persecuted Rohingya minority and the increase in Buddhist nationalism in Myanmar.

Myanmar was a former British colony that gained its independence in 1948. In 1962, the military successfully staged a coup and ruled the country until 2011. In the years since, Myanmar has begun a transition to a democratic state.

According to the panelists, with such uncertainty surrounding the elections, the success of the NLD was not a guaranteed outcome.

Thaw Htet, a first-year at Tufts from Myanmar, said that he was surprised by the election results.

“Before the elections, I personally was not sure [what would happen]," Htet said. “And most of the news reports said that the NLD would get a majority but not by that much. Maybe [they would get] about 50 percent or 40 percent of the seats, but not this…super-majority of the seats.”

Despite the NLD's success, the military still maintains some control within the government, appointing 25 percent of Parliament and controlling the critical ministries of border security, internal security and defense, Jalal noted.

Though the NLD and military have different political aims, there seems to be room for compromise between Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, the Nobel Peace Prize-winning leader of the NLD, and the military, according to the panelists. This would allow greater power in the government for the democratic party, which could be necessary to bring about change in a country that is newly emerging from a long military dictatorship.

Jalal said that Suu Kyi will encounter numerous difficulties along the path to establishing democracy. She pointed out examples of other countries, like Pakistan and Nigeria, that have seen military regimes transition out power.

“In recent times, we've seen politicians in military-dominated countries, powerful militaries, forging a sort of 'partnership' [with elected non-military leaders]" she said. "It's invariably an asymmetrical relationship, but unfortunately, when countries have military rule, they have to go through this process. And it takes many decades and many electoral cycles before any kind of civilian supremacy can be registered.”

Jalal also noted that the current support for the NLD has the potential to wane.

“It's interesting that people are generally very impatient with elected governments but have all the patience for military governments,” Jalal said. “I mean, look at Myanmar; [the military has] ruled it [from 1962] onwards. So in that sense, to expect miracles would be foolhardy, I think.”

The treatment of the Rohingya people is also still a matter of contention in Myanmar, and it is an obstacle to holding fair elections, according to the panelists. The Rohingya are a Muslim minority who have been long persecuted by the pro-Buddhist government, according to a June 13 article in The Economist. Some human rights groups have descibed the treatment of Muslims in Myanmar as ethnic cleansing.

The population of about one million is essentially a stateless people. They have lived in Myanmar for centuries, but the Rohingya are not "recognized as one of the country's national races" and are not considered citizens, according to a May 25 CBC News article. Many have left Myanmar but have not always been able to find safety and security. Some have died on the journey or have been kept in overcrowded detention centers in neighboring countries.

Member of Parliament (MP) Shwe Maung himself is a Rohingya, and therefore a “stateless MP," as he put it in the panel. In a Nov. 2 New York Times op-ed, he wrote about how the government has not only prevented him from running for reelection but also have refused many Rohingya the right to vote, among other civil rights violations. 

Htet noted that his family was reluctant to let him go to the panel because they are part of the group of Rakhine Buddhists. According to the CBC article, the 2012 rape and murder of a Buddhist woman by Muslim men sparked deadly riots and violence against the Rohingya. The violence inflicted upon the Rohingya by the Rakhine ethnic group have forced thousands to flee the country, according to a March 15, 2014 New York Times article. Some Rohingya have been detained in interment camps, according to a July 29 NPR article. 

The panelists discussed the ethnic tensions between the Rohingya and the Rakhine, noting that they present a significant obstacle to full democracy in Myanmar. 

During the panel, Dapice mentioned a quote from a Myanmar official who had claimed that the elections were “free enough and fair enough.” Jalal took issue with this statement, noting that although the elections were a positive sign of progress, there were also significant issues surrounding them.

“I would say that they may have been free, if by free we mean the right to exercise your vote," Jalal said. "But they were certainly not fair in the disenfranchisement of hundreds of thousands of Rohingyas ... One needs to strengthen the electoral process. I think there are too many problems in Myanmar with the constitution, [which contains] amendments that were introduced by the military that need to go …  I think that it would be quite erroneous for us to assume that you can perform miracles overnight. [Myanmar has] a very deeply entrenched military authoritarianism.”

However, first-year Phu Soe, also from Myanmar, recalled that there were positive signs of progress in Myanmar before she came to Tufts. Her father is also a supporter of the NLD, and she observed that most people seem to be happy with the recent election results.

“Back home, before I came here, I was actually starting to see changes," she said. "[Foreign governments have] started lifting the [economic] sanctions [placed on the country in response to the military dictatorship and human right violations]. So international businesses are in [Myanmar] now ... Before, we didn’t even have that."

Recognizing that the elections are a move in the right direction, the panelists were keen to point out the many obstacles Myanmar will nevertheless face along its road to democracy.

“So I think we'll have to watch...and keep our fingers crossed and hope that [Suu Kyi] can [create positive change], but [it] is a huge challenge", Jalal said.

Jalal also hopes that there will be a follow-up event held in the spring to analyze the outcomes of the election results.

“I think the panel addressed the immediacy of the newsworthy aspect, which is the elections, but then [there are] more lingering issues ,” she said. “So I think we had a very good discussion on really where [those issues come] from — the historical context, the colonial rule, what's happened in recent times.”